Thursday, January 18, 2007

US will ask Turkey to invade northern Iraq

As of January 2007, Turkey would love to send troops into northern Iraq, and is making noises that it will do so if a sovereign state of Kurdistan is formed.

The US is currently "asking" Turkey not to, and that is making Turkey frustrated.

My bullshit theory:

Within a few years, the US will ask Turkey to invade and secure northern Iraq to Kirkuk.

Why:

The US, unable to sustain its occupation, will be drawing down its presence in Iraq over the next 4 years, and will be leaving a vacuum as it goes.

The Iraqi government in Baghdad will get closer to Iran, and Iran will push harder into Iraq.

The US will fear Iranian control of Iraq's northern oilfields, but will lack the physical presence there to secure them itself.

The US will ask Turkey to do so instead.

This will royally piss off the Kurds, but the US would rather piss off one ally (Kurdistan) and see another ally (Turkey) controlling the oilfields, than see a happy ally (Kurdistan) succumbing to Iranian pressure while a perfectly good army (Turkey's) stands by and watches from inside its own borders.

This will happen in early 2010.